A Deep Dive into Nigeria's 2025 Global Terrorism Index Ranking

The 2025 Global Terrorism Index (GTI), ranked Nigeria at position 6, two places up from 8^th in 2024. This shift offers a fresh perspective on Nigeria's journey in combating this persistent threat.

The annual report, published by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), serves as a critical barometer for understanding the global landscape of terrorism. Headquartered in Sydney, Australia, with branches in New York City, Mexico City, Nairobi and Oxford, the IEP's index covers 163 countries, encompassing nearly 99.7% of the world's population, offering invaluable insights for policymakers and researchers alike. For Nigeria, a nation that has long grappled with the profound impact of terrorism, particularly from groups like Boko Haram and Islamic State affiliates, its position on the GTI is a significant indicator of both ongoing challenges and progress.

Decoding the Global Terrorism Index: Methodology and Parameters

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) ranks countries based on how much they are affected by terrorism. Each country gets a score between 0 (no impact) and 10 (highest impact).

The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) defines terrorism as the use or threat of illegal violence by non-state actors to achieve political, religious, economic, or social goals through fear and intimidation. State-sponsored terrorism is not included in the GTI.

How the GTI Score is Calculated:

A country's GTI score is based on four main factors:

1. Number of terrorist incidents – weight: 1
2. Number of deaths from terrorism – weight: 3 (this has the highest impact because loss of life is the most serious consequence)
3. Number of injuries from terrorism – weight: 0.5
4. Level of property damage – weighted from 0 to 3 (depending on severity)

To reflect the lasting effects of terrorism, the GTI uses a five-year weighted average. This means past terrorist attacks still affect a country’s current score, even if recent conditions have improved. Long-term efforts are therefore needed to reduce terrorism and improve a country's ranking.

 

Nigeria's GTI Journey: A Historical and Regional Perspective

Nigeria has historically been among the countries most impacted by terrorism. However, recent GTI reports indicate a positive shift, with a notable "fall in deaths" being largest in Iraq, Syria, and Nigeria.

Table 1: Nigeria's GTI Ranking Trend (2011-2025)

Year	Nigeria's Rank	GTI Score
2011	8th	-
2012	5th	-
2013	5th	-
2014	4th	8.58
2015	3rd	9.213
2016	3rd	9.314
2017	3rd	9.009
2018	3rd	8.660
2019	3rd	8.597
2020	3rd	8.314
2021
2022	6th	8.233
2023	8th	8.065
2024	8th	7.575
2025	6th	7.658

 

Globally, terrorism remains concentrated, with just ten countries accounting for 87% of total terrorism-related deaths. While global terrorism deaths increased by 22% to 8,352 in 2024, reaching the highest level since 2017, the epicenter has largely shifted. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for a significant 48% of global terrorism deaths in 2023. The Sahel region, in particular, has emerged as the new epicenter, representing 43% of global deaths in 2023 and an even higher 51% in 2024, with deaths increasing nearly tenfold since 2009. Countries like Burkina Faso and Niger have been severely impacted, with Niger experiencing a staggering 94% increase in terrorism deaths in 2024. This regional concentration highlights that even as Nigeria makes internal progress, broader instability in the Sahel poses a continuous threat of spillover.

The Ripple Effect: GTI Ranking on National Prosperity

A country's GTI ranking is more than a statistic; it profoundly influences its economic prospects and global standing.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): A higher GTI ranking, indicating a greater impact of terrorism, significantly deters FDI. Terrorism increases political risk, raises business costs, and endangers foreign assets and employees. Foreign investors are more sensitive to terrorism threats than domestic investors, and transnational attacks have an even greater negative impact on investment flows. This creates an environment of uncertainty that discourages long-term capital commitments vital for economic growth. Nigeria's FDI inflows have seen fluctuations: $2.385 billion in 2020, $3.313 billion in 2021, a net divestment of -$187 million in 2022, a surge to $1.87 billion in 2023, and a 19% decline to $250 million in Q1 2025, though this marks a recovery from a net divestment of $310 million in Q1 2024. In comparison, South Africa recorded $661 million in FDI inflows in Q1 2025 and ranks 7th globally for FDI confidence, while Egypt ranks 13th globally, benefiting from a significant surge to $97 billion in 2024 due to an urban development project. Morocco's FDI grew by 55% to $1.6 billion in 2024.

National Development: terrorism diverts crucial public funds towards counter-terrorism measures, reducing resources for essential development projects. It also hampers a country's market potential and overall economic prosperity. Nigeria's defense and security spending reflects this challenge: the proposed budget for 2025 is approximately $3.16 billion (N4.91 trillion), an increase from N3.85 trillion allocated in 2024. Historically, military spending was $3.19 billion in 2023, $3.11 billion in 2022, $4.47 billion in 2021, and $2.57 billion in 2020. Terrorism thrives in conditions like weak governance, ethnic tensions, and climate-induced shocks, creating a vicious cycle where existing vulnerabilities fuel terrorism, which in turn exacerbates these very conditions.

Tourism: This sector is highly vulnerable to perceptions of insecurity. A high GTI ranking can trigger a "substitution effect," where potential tourists choose safer destinations, leading to significant declines in visitor numbers and substantial economic losses. The psychological impact of terrorism, even without direct attacks on tourists, can profoundly deter travel, making recovery challenging. Notable examples are the cancellations of the annual Sallah Durbar in Kano State in 2019 as well as in June 2025 due to security concerns by the Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II which traditionally attracts thousands and results in substantial revenue loss and disruption to local investments.

Foreign Trade: Geopolitical risks, often exacerbated by terrorism, can lead to a redirection of trade and investment flows along geopolitical lines. This perception of a country as a high-risk geopolitical zone can make it harder to attract and retain trading partners, impacting its foreign trade relationships and potentially leading to economic isolation. Terrorism has also had a direct impact on Nigeria's key resources and human capital. In the mining sector, insecurity has led to a decline in production, with the sector contributing a meager 0.17% to GDP between 2018 and 2022, as miners fear accessing remote sites and terrorist groups exploit resources for financing. Agriculture, the mainstay for many, has also suffered significantly, with insecurity leading to reduced labor supply, increased food prices, and the neutralization of wheat production capacity in areas like Borno State.

Nigeria's Dual Narrative: Resilience Amidst Challenges

Despite the persistent challenge of terrorism, Nigeria presents a compelling dual narrative of struggle and resilience. While it continues to contend with the impact of groups like IS and Boko Haram, the nation has simultaneously demonstrated significant progress across various positive global indices. This highlights that Nigeria possesses underlying strengths, such as its large market and dynamic society, which help to cushion the negative impacts of terrorism.

 Nigeria's Performance Across Key Global Indices (GTI vs. Positive Indices)

Nigeria, as Africa's most populous nation, recorded a robust GDP growth of 3.13% in Q1 2025.[11] Its GDP was rebased to N205.09 trillion in 2019, with current prices reaching N372.8 trillion ($243 billion) in 2024.

 Despite this, Nigeria currently ranks as Africa's fourth-largest economy in nominal terms, behind South Africa ($410.338 billion), Egypt ($347.342 billion), and Algeria ($268.885 billion) in 2024.

 In human development, Nigeria's Human Development Index (HDI) value rose to 0.560 in 2023, reflecting progress in life expectancy, educational attainment, and income levels. The nation has also shown improvements in innovation, ranking 113th globally in the 2024 Global Innovation Index (GII).

Furthermore, Nigeria significantly improved its standing in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, moving up 15 places to 131st in 2020 and being recognized as one of the top 10 global improvers. While the 2025 Global Startup Ecosystem Index saw a slight slip to 66th globally, Lagos remains Africa's largest startup ecosystem, and Abuja has emerged as a fast-growing tech hub. The Nigerian Startup Act, signed into law on October 19, 2022, by former President Muhammadu Buhari, provides a legal and institutional framework for entrepreneurship, supporting the vibrant fintech sector that dominates innovation and investment.

Charting a Path Forward: Strategies for Improvement

To significantly improve its GTI ranking, Nigeria must strategically focus on reducing the core indicators that drive the score: terrorist incidents, fatalities, injuries, and property damage. Given the heavy weighting of fatalities, minimizing deaths from terrorism is of paramount importance.

Nigeria's government has implemented a multi-pronged approach to counter-terrorism. The National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), under the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), stands as the coordinating body for counter-terrorism and terrorism financing efforts. The current National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, and the leadership of the NCTC through its National Coordinator, Major General Adamu Garba Laka, deserve commendation for their commitment to a "whole of government and whole of society" approach, engaging various stakeholders from government, security forces, the private sector, academia, and civil society.[31] This holistic, preventive, and intelligence-driven strategy, which addresses root causes and builds societal resilience, aligns with the long-term requirements for GTI improvement.

Current efforts also include robust legal frameworks, such as the Terrorism Prevention and Prohibition Act of 2022, which criminalizes acts of terrorism and establishes a Special Victims Trust Fund. Furthermore, the NCTC employs cutting-edge strategies and technology, prioritizing intelligence, analysis, and cybersecurity. The Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) plays a critical role in tracking illicit financial flows and dismantling terrorist funding networks. Community engagement is also recognized as vital for building trust and countering extremist narratives at the grassroots level.

Recognizing that terrorism is a transnational threat, Nigeria actively collaborates with regional and international partners. The NCTC aims to be a hub for counter-terrorism programs within the West African sub-region, fostering effective regional collaboration. Governments such as the Netherlands and organizations like the United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime (UNODC) have been dialoguing with the NCTC, supporting initiatives like migration cooperation and strengthening international judicial cooperation to counter trafficking and smuggling. Nigeria consistently supports United Nations initiatives and conventions aimed at combating terrorism and its financing, demonstrating a commitment to global efforts. This underscores that national efforts, however robust, are insufficient against a borderless threat, and significant GTI improvement hinges on sustained and deepened regional and international cooperation. The ongoing review of the National Counter Terrorism Strategy (NACTEST) is a crucial step, and there is hope that this process will yield positive results, ensuring the strategy remains effective and relevant in the face of evolving threats.

Food for Thought: Nigeria's 2026 GTI Outlook

Based on Nigeria's current trajectory, its comprehensive counter-terrorism efforts, and the specific parameters of the GTI, a qualitative prediction for Nigeria's 2026 ranking suggests a continued trend of improving its score. The focus on reducing fatalities and incidents, coupled with a "whole of government and whole of society" approach by entities like the NCTC, is likely to yield further positive results. However, given the GTI's five-year weighted average methodology and the persistent regional instability in the Sahel, a dramatic leap off the index or into the "least ranked" category by 2026 remains an ambitious goal. A more realistic outlook would be a gradual but consistent improvement, potentially seeing Nigeria move further down the "High Impact" or into the "Medium Impact" categories, rather than a radical shift. The key challenge will be sustaining this momentum while effectively addressing the underlying drivers of extremism and managing the spillovers from neighboring conflict zones.

Conclusion

Nigeria's position on the Global Terrorism Index reflects a complex and ongoing struggle against terrorism, marked by significant challenges but also by notable progress in mitigating its direct impact and strengthening its counter-terrorism frameworks. The index serves as a stark reminder of terrorism's far-reaching consequences on a nation's economic prosperity, developmental trajectory, and global standing. While the nation's resilience and growth in other key development indices demonstrate its inherent strengths, sustained and holistic counter-terrorism efforts, coupled with robust regional and international cooperation, are indispensable for further improvement on the GTI. Addressing the root causes of violent extremism, fostering societal cohesion, and enhancing regional security partnerships will be paramount in securing a more peaceful and prosperous future for Nigeria.